Abstract

All the IPCC's five reports between 1990 and 2013 concluded that we cannot expect stable climate in the future and we should prepare scenarios and strategies for the survival of humankind under the conditions of forthcoming global change. The study describes the application of statistical downscaling method (SDSM) to downscale maximum temperature data. In order to explore the SDSM method, the Kufra station in Libya has been selected as a study site to test the methodology for maximum temperature. The study included calibration and validate with large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP reanalysis data, the future estimation due to a climate scenario, which are HadCM3 A2 and HadCM3 B2. Results of downscaling show that during the calibration and validation stage, the SDSM model can be well acceptable regard its performance in the downscaling of daily maximum temperature.

Trend analysis in the study area showed an increase in average annual and monthly maximum temperature, compared to the baseline period for both HadCM3A2a and HadCM3B2a scenarios in both the dry and wet seasons. The average annual maximum temperature in Kufra area is predicted to increase by 1. 3°C and 1.4°C by the 2020s (2011-2040) under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. By the 2050s (2041-2070) the increase is predicted to be 1.4°C, 1.7°C under the both A2 and B2 scenarios. By the 2080s, (2071-2099) the average annual maximum temperature is predicted to increase by 1.9 °C and 1.4°C under A2 and B2.

However, there is likely to be a significant warming in local surface temperature, which is enough for a significant change on the energy balance and is likely to impact water availability.

Keywords: - SDSM Statistical downscaling model, IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, GCM General Circulation model, SERS Special Report on the Emission Scenarios, HadCM3 Hadley Climate Model version.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: on the last decade in Libya, the oncology center in Misurata become the most

important cancer diagnosis and follow up center on the western region of Libya. The Libyan

society was worried about the increase of the percentage of tumor incidences among the Libyans

on the last few years. This study focuses on cancer prevalence in city of Misurata and the

surrounding area in central Libya from 2012 to 2016.

METHODS: A hospital-based registry of cancer patients was formed using records from oncology

center in Misurata, focusing on patients who were diagnosed between 2012 and 2016.

RESULTS: the incidence of tumor on females was higher than males from 2014 up to higher

deference on 2016, the most common malignancies in men were cancers of the lung on years from

2012 up to 2015 even though it decrease to 18% of males patients on 2016, followed by colon, its

prevalence rate ranged from 14% to 18% of recorded male patients (For women, they were found

to be cancers of the breast ranged from 29.84% on 2012 and raised to 43.08%. Additionally, agestandardized

rates (ASR) were determined for recording patients who leaved on the city of

Misurata and compared with published record from the other countries. The incidence rates given

for the city of Misurata can be considered with the counties with low malignancy rate

CONCLUSION: Proper surveillance programs need to be in place and healthcare policy should be

adjusted to consider the more prevalent and pressing cancers in society.

Key words : Misurata cancer center, breast cancer, lung cancer, colon cancer, Libya

ABSTRACT In this work, we show the theorem of the convolution of the Abaoub-Shkheam transform and employed it for solving one dimensional linear Volterra integral equations of the second kind.