Abstract

All the IPCC's five reports between 1990 and 2013 concluded that we cannot expect stable climate in the future and we should prepare scenarios and strategies for the survival of humankind under the conditions of forthcoming global change. The study describes the application of statistical downscaling method (SDSM) to downscale maximum temperature data. In order to explore the SDSM method, the Kufra station in Libya has been selected as a study site to test the methodology for maximum temperature. The study included calibration and validate with large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP reanalysis data, the future estimation due to a climate scenario, which are HadCM3 A2 and HadCM3 B2. Results of downscaling show that during the calibration and validation stage, the SDSM model can be well acceptable regard its performance in the downscaling of daily maximum temperature.

Trend analysis in the study area showed an increase in average annual and monthly maximum temperature, compared to the baseline period for both HadCM3A2a and HadCM3B2a scenarios in both the dry and wet seasons. The average annual maximum temperature in Kufra area is predicted to increase by 1. 3°C and 1.4°C by the 2020s (2011-2040) under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. By the 2050s (2041-2070) the increase is predicted to be 1.4°C, 1.7°C under the both A2 and B2 scenarios. By the 2080s, (2071-2099) the average annual maximum temperature is predicted to increase by 1.9 °C and 1.4°C under A2 and B2.

However, there is likely to be a significant warming in local surface temperature, which is enough for a significant change on the energy balance and is likely to impact water availability.

Keywords: - SDSM Statistical downscaling model, IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, GCM General Circulation model, SERS Special Report on the Emission Scenarios, HadCM3 Hadley Climate Model version.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: on the last decade in Libya, the oncology center in Misurata become the most

important cancer diagnosis and follow up center on the western region of Libya. The Libyan

society was worried about the increase of the percentage of tumor incidences among the Libyans

on the last few years. This study focuses on cancer prevalence in city of Misurata and the

surrounding area in central Libya from 2012 to 2016.

METHODS: A hospital-based registry of cancer patients was formed using records from oncology

center in Misurata, focusing on patients who were diagnosed between 2012 and 2016.

RESULTS: the incidence of tumor on females was higher than males from 2014 up to higher

deference on 2016, the most common malignancies in men were cancers of the lung on years from

2012 up to 2015 even though it decrease to 18% of males patients on 2016, followed by colon, its

prevalence rate ranged from 14% to 18% of recorded male patients (For women, they were found

to be cancers of the breast ranged from 29.84% on 2012 and raised to 43.08%. Additionally, agestandardized

rates (ASR) were determined for recording patients who leaved on the city of

Misurata and compared with published record from the other countries. The incidence rates given

for the city of Misurata can be considered with the counties with low malignancy rate

CONCLUSION: Proper surveillance programs need to be in place and healthcare policy should be

adjusted to consider the more prevalent and pressing cancers in society.

Key words : Misurata cancer center, breast cancer, lung cancer, colon cancer, Libya

ABSTRACT In this work, we show the theorem of the convolution of the Abaoub-Shkheam transform and employed it for solving one dimensional linear Volterra integral equations of the second kind.  

This work is focused on nucleation stages during isothermal austenite decomposition in two medium carbon Vanadium Ti / Ti free micro alloyed steels. Isothermal treatment was carried out in the temperature range 350 to 600οC. Metallographic evaluation using optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) enabled determination of the nucleation onset phases of isothermally decomposed austenite. Mainly three phases are found to be relevant to this initiation stage of transformation: first is related to grain boundary nucleated ferrite (GBF), second is related to intra-granularly nucleated ferrite (IGF) and the third to pearlite (P). GBF and IGF are divided into the high temperature and the low temperature segments as consequence of either displacive or diffusion nature of transformation. Addition of titanium to V – micro alloyed steel in this work seems to be balanced by a slightly higher C and Mn content, leading to limited effect on nucleation stage of austenite decomposition. The results show that during continuous cooling, onset of pearlite phase can take place. It occurs at temperatures ≥ 500 C°, followed by an incomplete reaction phenomenon. The main characteristics of pearlite is always nucleated on the surface between proeutectoid ferrite and austenite. Incubation time for onset of pearlite decrease with decrease of temperature.

This paper aims to demonstrate the application of two different control techniques, namely the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and a neural network-based controller to evaluate and control the vibrations that occurred in the car's suspension system. When the car suspension is designed, a quarter car model with 1-DOF is used. A complete control system is needed to provide the desired suspension performance and characteristics such as passenger comfort, road handling, and suspension deflection, this control system performed by using the Matlab software and includes three parts: input signals (actuator force and road profile), Controller, and the suspension system model. The simulation results show a comparison between the uncontrolled suspension system and the suspension system with a neural network-based controller and the active suspension system of the car based on the linear-quadratic regulator, and it is explained thoroughly.

Vehicle safety and control is attracting attention increasingly in an attempt to improve the stability and manoeuvrability of vehicles. Three degrees of freedom vehicle dynamic model (called planar vehicle model) is established. Based on theories of fuzzy PID control and neural network based-Controller, controller of vehicle stability is designed by using the method of direct yaw rate control and the two different control strategies. The controllers were compared under one road condition which is a lane change of manoeuvre. By comparing and analyzing the control effect of fuzzy PID control and neural network based-Controller, the result shows as follows: the two controllers improved the yaw rate to follow the reference yaw rate but, using the fuzzy PID controller gave a better and closer path for the desired path of yaw rate compared to using of the neural network controller.